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Thursday, March 31, 2005

It's A Bird, It's A Plane!


Are you ready for gasoline prices to go through the roof? Today, MSNBC reported...

New York light crude futures rose $1.61 to $55.60 in midday trading, in part because of a Goldman Sachs research note that said the market is in the early stages of a "super spike" period. Goldman revised its "super spike" range to $50 to $105 per barrel from $50 to $80 per barrel, reported.

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The conventional wisdom spouted by supply side economic gurus was that the Iraq War would lead to lower oil prices. Let's take a trip down memory lane, shall we? Back to a time of rose-colored glasses...

Roger Kubarych, senior economic adviser for the Americas at Hypo-Vereins Bank, sees the impact from any confrontation as temporary, in part because he thinks Iraq will acquiesce to UN weapons inspections. If there is a war, he said, it could be won quickly. He also said Lindsey's numbers on the potential cost sounded high.

"I don't think it will be a big impact. The stock market will go down and oil prices will go up right at the beginning. ... This will scare people and they will become risk-averse," Kubarych said. " Once the war is clearly won, oil prices will drop like a stone," he added, noting there was already a war premium in oil prices.

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It's a good thing our man Wolfowitz is the head of the World Bank now. I'm sure his infinite wisdom will avert such a catastrophe. Then again, maybe not.

“There’s a lot of money to pay for this that doesn’t have to be U.S. taxpayer money, and it starts with the assets of the Iraqi people…and on a rough recollection, the oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years…We’re dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon.” [Source: House Committee on Appropriations Hearing on a Supplemental War Regulation, 3/27/03]

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