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Saturday, October 30, 2004

Remember The Polls Last Time?

The Angry Liberal does.

Check this out.

On October 27th, 2000, the Gallup Poll showed Bush with a 13 point advantage.

Marco the Physicist comments,

A sample size of 851 gives an MoE of about 3.43%. This represents 1.96 standard deviations from the mean. That means the standard deviation is about 1.74%.

The probability of the Bush number being off by 3.63% is 0.01897 (about 1 in 52). This is improbable, but not implausible.

The probability of the Gore number being off by 8.89% is 1.858 x 10^-7 (about 1 in 5,381,477), which is implausible. The fact that Gallup was consistently wrong coupled with the fact that it was consistently wrong in favor of Bush says one thing: their polling is severely flawed.

If the votes are counted accurately, it should be a Kerry landslide. I'm not the only one who doubts they will be. If the election is close, it will be decided in court. We can let it happen. Get out the vote!

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